With the next state election 15 months away, LNP opposition leader David Crisafulli was keen to cast the result as proof of a disconnect between governments and voters.

“The message that Queenslanders sent overwhelmingly was for governments, both here and in Canberra, to do a hell of a lot better than what they’re doing,” he told reporters on Sunday.

He mentioned cost of living as a key issue affecting people alongside the health and crime matters his party consistently highlights from opposition.

“There is a disconnect with those issues and a government…not willing to admit the crisis situation that they’re in,” Mr Crisafulli said.

The Labor camp has a different interpretation of a likely two-party preferred swing of between two and three per cent for victorious LNP candidate Cameron Cardwell.

State transport Minister Mark Bailey said a two per cent swing in the comfortable LNP seat is “extraordinarily low” by historical standards.

“Especially with such an unpopular retiring MP in Stuart Robert and a decade entrenched local Councillor replacing him,” he tweeted on Sunday.

Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the LNP underperformed against the historical average, with a typical four per cent swing against the government in by-elections.

Under Mr Robert, whose resignation from parliament in May triggered the by-election, the LNP held the seat with a margin of 10.6 per cent.

The Fadden result follows Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s dismissal of polling data showing the Queensland government was on track to lose next year’s election.

The Freshwater Strategy Poll, conducted for the Australian Financial Review, found almost half of those surveyed had an unfavourable view of the premier.

She was edged out as preferred premier by Mr Crisafulli in the poll of 1065 voters, which found Labor’s primary vote had fallen to 34 per cent.

“I’m not going to listen to a poll that’s mainly made up of LNP operatives,” Ms Palaszczuk said after the results were published earlier this month.