The starting point for any deconstruction of the politics behind Scott Morrison’s latest tough guy swerve on handling SARS-CoV-2 can be found in the thousands of words produced at a seriously dramatic news conference held 17 months ago.

This was the big first step on the road to restrictions – a path we’re still on, albeit with complexities, complications and contradictions.

It began with mass gatherings being contained to assemblies of less than 500 people. It was a Friday news conference, on March 13, 2020, and the new gathering rule would come into effect the next Monday.

In the meantime, Morrison had plans. He wanted to go to the footy on Saturday night, to watch his “beloved” Cronulla Sharks take on the South Sydney Rabbitohs (very much loved by Labor’s Anthony Albanese).

Morrison was as definite as he could be: “I do still plan to go to the football on Saturday as I said because this is an arrangement we’re putting in place for next week as a precaution.

“The fact that I would still be going on Saturday speaks not just to my passion for my beloved Sharks. It might be the last game I get to go to for a long time. And that’s fine.”

Of course, like so much that’s happened since March 13, 2020, it wasn’t fine.

Morrison was shamed into changing his mind – a brutal manoeuvre given his stubborn addiction to stubbornness. It was revealing, especially with the benefit of hindsight, something so popular now around the world.

What’s telling and looks observable from space using that hindsight telescope is Morrison’s instinct. He wanted normal, block-headedly blind to the clear signs indicating normal was on long service leave.

Morrison’s love affair with normal is more than an affectation – although, with this political animal, you have to consider the possibility everything (the smallest detail and the most consequential matters) is affected.

As the weeks turned into months and beyond, Morrison has shape-shifted to whatever type of attitude or stance he felt the circumstances required.

He was against shutting businesses until he wasn’t. He was against a wage replacement scheme until he wasn’t. Morrison opposed Western Australia’s hard border with the rest of the country until he changed his mind and he pulled out of backing Clive Palmer’s always doomed legal challenge.

He was all for a managed re-emergence from the “under the doona” lockdowns until just weeks ago, when he became a fanboy for lockdowns.

Now he’s changing the lyrics to that song, doing a duet with New South Wales premier Berejiklian. They want a planned, phased, join-the-dots escape from what he now calls “the cave” of lockdowns which he says are bad for lives and livelihoods.

They hang the current stance on modelling the gathering of first ministers, aka the national cabinet, was presented with and has endorsed. Or did they?

A majority of premiers – coincidentally Labor ones – say no. They say the modelling is based on a very small number of active cases (actually just 30 across the country) but Morrison says he has a model in mind which allows for gradual “opening up” of state and territory societies and economies when thresholds of 70 and 80 percent of available adults being vaccinated – that is, two shots of immunisation.

A couple of things bump up against Morrison’s latest high-wire move. First, any chain is only as strong as its weakest link which means those thresholds need to apply within every jurisdiction – if New South Wales has more than 80 percent of their population vaccinated fully while Western Australia falls significantly short (not impossible on current numbers and trends), the threshold has not been reached.

Second, any vaccination achievement has to include children. Young people under the age of 16 get SARS-CoV-2 and can have an illness, whether it’s the full impact of the virus or complications from the still little studied “long covid”.

Third, the verdict on the vaccines is not settled. Just this past weekend Joe Biden’s surgeon-general has recommended all people who have had two shots of Pfizer or Moderna get a booster eight months after inoculation number two. This is based on scientific findings from the Centre for Disease Control which says the lasting efficacy of these vaccines is now doubtful.

The idea of a third vaccine shot is a big spanner in the works for Morrison’s new way out of the cave. That is before we get to whether telling people two shots is not enough is going to put some power underneath vaccine hesitancy.

Morrison feels cornered politically and is second-guessing where he should turn next.

Whatever he does, one thing is certain. It will be guided by political considerations and what the consequences might be for an election.

Morrison has always wanted an election this year – as an old apparatchik, he knows his best chance is to go as early as he possibly can.

Maybe an election built on a war between the Commonwealth and the states – “give me a mandate to show these recalcitrants the correct way!” – is in his mind.

He has today launched an attack on what he claims are “laggard” states on vaccines, sewing it into his “the premiers made a compact with the people” cloth. He neatly forgets he made a deal with the public on getting vaccinations by the third and fourth month of the year and failed. If he’d kept his promises we wouldn’t be where we are today. That was a deal with the public upon which Morrison reneged.

Some suggest Morrison is basing all this on polling saying people are sick of lockdowns. That might be showing up in qualitative research from specific parts of the country. It should not be taken as settled or conclusive.

If he is thinking of sparking a political showdown aimed at an October election, he might want to think again. People living in at least two states – Queensland and WA – like keeping the spread of the virus as close to zero as possible. If Morrison bucks this sentiment and loses seats in those jurisdictions, he will lose the election. You don’t need any modelling for that.

The other factor you can’t ignore in these strained times is Morrison’s chickens coming home to roost. He has used passive aggression to belittle, ridicule and bully premiers who he doesn’t like or just play for the other team.

He has played hardball politics putting his grandiosity and self interest before the national interest or humility. Premiers have been hit, slighted or offended. Some are now getting square.

Also, he’s now being attacked asymmetrically from his right with Campbell Newman and Clive Palmer hitting him hard on freedoms and lockdowns.

By the way, that Cronulla/Souths game on March 14 was one Morrison probably didn’t mind missing. Albanese’s Rabbitohs won easily. Metaphor much?