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Hard enough keeping count of the casualties, not to mention the panic

Wracked by confusion and searching for certainty, the community is prepared to give our leaders the benefit of the doubt – for now. Dennis Atkins reports:

Mar 17, 2020, updated Mar 17, 2020
We may not see the new normal until the end of the year at the earliest (Photo: AAP Image/Joel Carrett)

We may not see the new normal until the end of the year at the earliest (Photo: AAP Image/Joel Carrett)

Let’s check off the casualties of the Great COVID-19 crisis of 2020. Public health has been shaken to its foundations with policy makers throwing caution out the door because there’s no point not to roll the dice.

Public health policy is now aimed at flattening the curve, getting the number of new infections down to a level at which the health system can cope and the spread can be slowed.

Things will almost certainly get worse before they get better with most experts looking to the spread of the virus peaking in our Spring.

This is why events are being cancelled, movement is being restricted and economic activity is being shut down bit by bit. The next big casualty is almost certain to be this month’s parliamentary sitting – it will go ahead but it is going to be a very scaled back operation, meeting not much more than the requirements for a formal quorum in both Houses and skeleton staff support. A quorum is one-fifth of sitting members and senators, which is 30 in the House and 15 in the Senate.

These last consequences are driving the broader economic impacts. A stimulus package worth initially $17.6 billion with a further $5 billion tail was greeted with gasps. Now, ONLY five days later that awe has been parked and we’re talking about COVID-19 Stimulus Mark II – which could be rolled out by the end of the week.

Not only is this year’s surplus gone, we won’t see another one this side of the next election. Deficits in the tens of billions will be around for a while.

Central banks are slashing interest rates, which are already at historically low levels nudging zero. Even Australia’s Reserve Bank is going into the bottom drawer and resorting to what’s euphemistically called quantitative easing but is really printing money.

The last time that happened in Australia was during the Great Depression in the 1930s and it didn’t work. It’s unlikely to help much this time around either.

It’s no wonder the economy has tanked, with the size of the damage the only outstanding question.

As of this morning, normally level-headed economists are predicting the Australian economy will shrink by 2.5 per cent in the months March to June, a further 2 per cent in the June quarter and finish the year with a smaller contraction of 1 per cent leading up to Christmas.

That’s being offered as an optimistic view, with unemployment jumping by about 2 points to 7 per cent which could lead to the number of people out of work reaching 1 million people, up from the January figure of 725,000.

Inflation will go backwards, recording a negative half a per cent – sending prices down for those who can afford to spend.

Everything has changed and the new normal is not here yet. We may not see the new normal until the end of the year at the earliest.

Of course, there are challenges for our leaders. They are as in the dark as anyone else – with the exception of some very clever medical scientists modelling the virus and those heroes (including Brisbane’s own team at the University of Queensland) scrambling to find and prove a vaccine.

Some political mistakes are being made – Scott Morrison and Annastacia Palaszczuk falling over themselves to get to the season opener football games was at the top of the list (Morrison came to his senses, his Queensland counterpart not so nimble).

The confusion over things such as whether to shake hands, keep schools open or what was going on with what will and will not be open hasn’t helped.

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Morrison also should have invited Labor’s Anthony Albanese to join his national “war cabinet” but his tribal instincts won the day.

While partisans are barracking from the sidelines and shouting, often rudely, on social media, the overwhelming majority of Australians are wishing our leaders and policymakers succeed.

There will be a time for report cards and we can then deliver judgments but that time is not now.

This week’s Newspoll showed two things – Australians are giving Morrison the benefit of the doubt for now with his personal ratings making up some of the lost ground he suffered during December and January. The PM is now on notice to turn overleaf and accept honesty is an essential skill for effective leadership.

The other glaring result is just how terrified people are about the virus and a deep apprehension about the possible success of the stimulus measures taken so far.

Finally, some sound advice from Simon Wesley, head of the Health Protection Research Unit for Emergency Preparedness and Response at King’s College London, writing in today’s Financial Times.

“I am one of the many scientists called on to give advice to government at times like these,” he says. “When my colleagues and I speak to those charged with communicating to the public, we start with three basic principles: don’t give premature reassurance; don’t tell people not to panic; get doctors and scientists on television as soon as possible.

“Usually the official asks what is wrong with telling people not to panic. First, those who are already panicking are unlikely to listen. Second, those who aren’t will start to wonder if they should. But, most important, we know that during emergencies most people don’t panic for most of the time.”

Very sensible advice that should be listened to by our own policymakers.

 

Topics: covid-19
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