Anthony Albanese thinks he can pull some Taylor Swift magic out of his prime ministerial satchel after what looks increasingly like an emphatic defeat of the Voice to Parliament referendum in 12 days.

Listening to a podcast interview Albanese conducted a week ago, it’s clear he wants to shake off any negative result, to use the phrase most associated with Swift. Shaking it off was the US mega star’s way of brushing away the negativity in her life a decade ago. Now it’s contributed mightily to the Nashville based star’s personal and commercial success, selling millions of copies (it went platinum in Australia 13 times).

Albanese has used the song to shrug off mistakes before, as he did in April, 2022 during the last federal election after he scored one of the greatest political own-goals by not knowing basic economic facts on day one of the campaign. He keeps telling people to listen to the lyrics, which he says are fantastic. “You’ve got to do that, exactly. You’ve just got to shake it off,” he told FM radio in June this year.

More probably, the lyrics Albanese really likes are found in the central stanza when Swift sings “I never miss a beat/I’m lightning on my feet/And that’s what they don’t see”.

Listening between the words, Albanese clearly expects the referendum to be voted down on Saturday week. He spends time talking about the positive impact of the campaign regardless of the outcome and he also quickly turns to creating the target of a post-loss blame game.

“… Australians are talking like never before about the gap that’s there in life expectancy, about the fact that an Indigenous young male has a greater chance of going to jail than university, about health issues and about housing, and about listening.” the Prime Minister told The Guardian.

“That process in itself is something that I believe is positive; the fact that we’re talking about Indigenous disadvantage not on the fringes [of the national conversation] but on the front pages of newspapers.”

Albanese began this week telling reporters in Victoria the referendum is a pain-free, cost-free proposition: “No-one loses from this proposition.”

This is the hardest sell in politics, arguing that by voting for something, nothing will change. It fits with Albanese’s proposition that this is just a vote for an “idea” – one of many he has offered in his throw spaghetti at the wall scramble to find a way out of the mess in which he’s landed himself.

As worthwhile as the thesis behind the Voice to Parliament is – and always has been – it has never been explained beyond the “vibe” that Albanese originally believed would cause a groundswell of “new politics” hand-holidng.

Colour this columnist cynical but it was never going to happen without a hard sell, without the investment of political capital.
As was argued here a week ago, by the time Albanese and his band of Yes campaigners worked out what Liberal leader Peter Dutton was up to, they’d lost vital ground.

Anyone with a knowledge of Queensland politics and how Dutton fights – he’s not regarded as a junk yard dog for the enjoyment of cartoonists – would have known months before the Aston by-election how the Liberals would behave.

The loss in Aston was a mere convenience to say “no” as a piece of performative politics. It was always going to happen – if not then, it would have most likely occurred about the time of the 2023 Budget.

Albanese now wants to set the scene for Dutton to carry the cost of a defeat of the referendum question on October 14. It is not going to be that simple. Dutton may well bear some cost although he has probably done a more brutal calculation of what he might lose and gain than the prime minister has.

In crude political terms, a defeat of the referendum would see Dutton score a political win at the expense of Albanese. As much as the prime minister protests this is not his referendum, it is how most voters view it, in a positive as well as a negative sense.

Dutton will have enhanced his reputation for being a coldly conservative politician who is against progressive change – let’s not forget his history. He was against the apology (since recanted), he didn’t like marriage equality (but accepted it grudgingly) and has been an unflinching adherent to the Liberals’ “stop the boats” strategy. Now he’s seen as a vocal opponent of the Voice.

This does not play well in the inner suburban seats his party lost to the teal independents in 2022 – seats where a strong majority of voters will doubtless back the Voice. Maybe he doesn’t care that much or maybe he is playing a longer game that others can’t quite grasp. It might help if he explained it in some way.

Dutton tells his colleagues and politic associates he can construct a win against Labor without winning back the teal seats – although he realises one or two of them would help.

He thinks he can win seats in Sydney, perhaps one or two in Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth while he doesn’t discount adding to the already lop-sided contingent of LNP members from Queensland.

Maybe this is more than a pipe dream but in Dutton’s position you meed something to cling to. A political win in the referendum might be just that.

For Albanese, the political danger in a loss of the Voice question is greater than any risk Dutton might face if, through a miracle, the Yes side jumped out of the gound.

His judgement would be called into question and his colleagues would factor in doubt into what he does. During the last year and a half Albanese’s judgment has often looked doubtful.

Going to the “too good to refuse” wedding of FM radio shock-jock Kyle Sandilands (in the company of a convicted drug dealer and a dubious Kings Cross nightclub owner) was not a good look in April and looks worse now. Likewise, his back-slapping friendship with now departed and disgraced Qantas boss Alan Joyce was unwise.

As prime minister, you need to know when to pull yourself up and have someone close who can offer a frank reality check. It’s not always possible to just, make bad calls, make mistakes and missteps and simple, shake it off.