How Queensland found itself in a baby drought, and why it will change who we are
Queensland’s natural population is in steep decline and the state is starting to look older and increasingly from somewhere else.
Queensland is heading towards a baby drought (Pic: Unsplash)
The Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed deaths would outnumber births within 20 to 30 years in Queensland.
It also showed that the trend away from decentralisation would continue with concentration of population growth in Queensland in the capital.
Brisbane would increase from 49 per cent of the population to about 51 per cent by 2032. All the other capitals were expected to stay constant.
The state’s population was also increasingly middle-aged. The median age in 2022 was 38.6 years but by 2071 it would be between 43 and 47 years, according to ABS projections.
The ABS produced three population estimates: low, medium and high. In the low to medium series, deaths in Queensland will exceed births by 2044 (low) and 2056 (medium).
Currently, the natural increase (births versus deaths) in Queensland is 26,000, but that is in steep decline.
The baby drought meant state would increasingly become dependent on immigration which the Australian Bureau of Statistics said would be between 24,200 and 38,000 a year by 2032. Interstate arrivals would also help with a gain of between 6000 and 22,000 a year from 2027.
The percentage of children aged 0 to 14 would fall markedly from 19 per cent of the population to between 13 per cent and 16 per cent by 2071.
Crucially, the working age population would fall from 64 per cent to about 58 per cent and people over 65 would increase from 17 per cent to more than 25 per cent of the population.
The state’s projected population would be almost 6 million by 2032 in the base case or 6.4 million in the higher projections. By 2071, almost 10 million would call Queensland home.
