The heat is on: Predictions of ‘strongest ever’ El Nino raise fears of bushfire season
Australia is set to burn if El Nino returns as predicted, bringing hot and dry conditions.
The cost of reinsurance has increased because of concerns over natural hazards Photo: ABC
While a official declaration of an El Nino event for Australia is yet to take place, the Bureau of Meteorology last week enacted an alert.
Scientists are tipping it could be “the strongest El Nino ever measured”.
While El Nino is a worldwide phenomenon, Australia is the most vulnerable nation in the developed world because it raises the risk of drought, heatwaves and bushfires in the east of the country.
It also increases the chances of mass coral bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef.
Greg Mullins, an internationally recognised expert in responding to major bushfires and natural disasters, predicts an above normal fire season for the year ahead.
“We’re set for a bad year,” Mr Mullins told a Climate Council media briefing on Monday. ‘
“If I was a betting man, I’d say we’re going to get big fires this year.”
Historically, bushfires were sequential, according to Mr Mullins – with fires burning in Queensland, then NSW and then Victoria – which made it possible for states to share aerial firefighting resources.
But that may no longer be possible because of simultaneous fire seasons along the east coast.
He said it was almost impossible for emergency authorities to prepare adequately for what is to come.
“(For example) Canada at the moment… just totally unprecedented fires,” he said.
“These fires are beyond the capacity of firefighting agencies. It doesn’t matter how many aircraft you throw at it, how many trucks, how many people.
“We’re seeing places burn that never used to burn before.”
He said it was important to get in front of the curve of global warming or doom future generations to natural and unnatural disasters that society can’t recover from.
El Nino conditions will continue to intensify over coming months and will likely make 2024 the world’s hottest year on record.
From 2020 to early 2023, a protracted La Nina episode led to record-breaking rainfall and flooding along Australia’s east coast.
Research director at the Climate Council Simon Bradshaw says those heavy rains spurred rapid growth of grass and bushland, including rapid regrowth in areas scorched by the Black Summer bushfires of 2019 and 2020.
That growth leaves much of Australia in a precarious position.
“In the event of an El-Nino-boosted drought, it is only a matter of time before we face another catastrophic fire season,” Dr Bradshaw said.
