The Bureau of Meteorology says a tropical low forming near Vanuatu is expected to move west over the Coral Sea on Monday and Tuesday towards the north Queensland city of Mackay.

The system will then rapidly intensify into a tropical cyclone as it moves west and it could intensify into a severe cyclone by Wednesday night or the early hours of Thursday.

“There is considerable risk that the system could be close to the east coast of Queensland, off Mackay by Thursday,” the Bureau said in an alert on Sunday night.

“However, current model guidance indicates that the cyclone may curve towards the southeast, away from the coast from late Thursday or Friday. Based on this, a direct impact or landfall is not expected at this stage.”

Severe cyclones are classified as having sustained winds of more than 118km/h and gusts of more than 165km/h with the latest system this season likely to be named Cyclone Freddy.

“It could even be a cyclone by Wednesday, so we’ve got a high chance on the tropical cyclone outlook on Wednesday and probably for Thursday as well,” senior forecaster Steve Hadley said.

“It looks as though it’s going to slow up as it moves towards the coast and it’s actually more likely to stay offshore than move ashore through the week.”

Hadley said Brisbane was not expected to be affected.

“We’ll just be staying in the south-easterlies that are around the western periphery of the tropical cyclone,” he said.