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Expert’s advice: Bunker down, wait for vaccine

Australia’s best hope of avoiding a coronavirus crisis is to maintain travel restrictions long enough for a new vaccine to lessen the impact on the health system.

Feb 26, 2020, updated Feb 26, 2020
University of Queensland researchers have been left devastated by the decision to discontinue their work on a COVID-19 vaccine.

University of Queensland researchers have been left devastated by the decision to discontinue their work on a COVID-19 vaccine.

That is the view of Nobel Prize winner and Queensland Great, University of Melbourne Professor Peter Doherty, who expects the system to come under “enormous pressure” with thousands more sick patients and health workers themselves falling ill.

A normal influenza season puts hospitals and GP clinics under strain, and can force elective surgery cancellations and aged care facilities to be locked down. Pandemics, however, overwhelm the system, requiring temporary facilities and even tent hospitals – with long-term ramifications.

Doherty, renowned for his research on the immune system, said the University of Queensland’s development of a potential vaccine was a “spectacular achievement” and “if that works, that’s fantastic”.

But with any such vaccine still months, if not years, away from regular production, Doherty said Australia needed to stem the spread of the virus for as long as possible.

He acknowledged, however, that travel restrictions and trade disruptions had a financial impact, and might not keep the virus contained for long.

“It’s a big ask, and the economic repercussions of this – no matter what happens – are massive, much worse than SARS,” Doherty told InQueensland.

“This sort of globalised world we live in has its pluses but it’s also a fool’s paradise.”

Queensland Treasurer Jackie Trad today warned the control measures could strip up to $1.7 billion from the state’s economy this year.

“If it goes for much longer, and into next year, it will be much more significant,” Trad told ABC Radio.

A fortnight ago, the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee recommended a “wait and see” approach before recommending changes to travel restrictions, with some case-by-case exceptions allowed under strict controls.

However, the longer the restrictions remain the bigger the impact on the tourist, retail and international education sectors, and some experts believe such controls will ultimately prove ineffective. SARS-CoV-2, which causes the disease COVID-19, is spreading around the world, but somehow Australia’s northern neighbour, Indonesia, has not reported any domestic cases.

While not commenting specifically on Indonesia, Doherty said “the threat to Australia won’t come now from China, it will come from countries who aren’t reporting”.

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Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Tuesday said there were no plans to ease restrictions but “more than 30,000 people have returned to Australia since the 1st of February and the self-isolation process has worked very effectively”.

Australia declared COVID-19 a disease of pandemic potential on January 21, with more frequent meetings of experts and officials, under the oversight of a National Incident Centre, and Australian Medical Assistance Teams put on standby.

It is unclear whether Australia’s emergency medical stockpile has been boosted, in the wake of the novel coronavirus spread, but protective equipment and some pathology consumables are expected to be in short supply.

Even if a vaccine is made available, distribution strategies need to be established – health workers would be among the first protected – and the extent of disruption to pathology, GP and hospital services remains to be seen.

Queensland Health Minister Steven Miles said the state’s hospitals were well prepared but the virus threat came amid difficult negotiations with the Commonwealth for the next hospital funding and reform agreement.

“With our hospitals preparing for a pandemic the Morrison government shouldn’t be playing politics with hospital funding,” Miles said.

“We need a new agreement to provide funding certainty and it must allow our hospitals flexibility to deal with the demand that is already coming, and the spike that will come if coronavirus spreads here.”

Commonwealth, state and territory health ministers are due to discuss COVID-19 and the next agreement tomorrow and again on Friday.

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