If 2020 was the party that went wrong in every possible way, 2021 will be the hangover that could go one of two ways. It could be a short, sharp, painful morning followed by an afternoon that improves minute by minute.

This scenario depends on good luck as much as any skill and accomplishment. A variety of efficacious vaccines needs to be rolled out through the population; a striking majority of businesses that have survived on “job keeper” life support need to return to adequate health when the props are removed; and our relations with China take a turn for the better.

One out of three would help but a triple score is what we need.

The other option is that most of what went wrong in 2020 will persist in the months ahead.

Queensland’s economic and social health in 2021 is linked to all of the upside preconditions. It will help if our borders with the rest of the country can remain open for most if not all of the year but, as the Avalon Cluster showed, that’s hostage to fortune.

The resumption of international flows of visitors, students and possible business migrants are uncertain and will be prised open only when vaccination becomes a welcome new normal.
China is a big unknown known, as former US defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld might have said. Our coal and meat processing industries are suffering significantly while other parts of primary production, such as wine, remain in the economic deep freeze. We can only hope people start talking again and choke points can be greased.

The just revealed plans by China to build a $200 million fishing economic facility on Papua New Guinea island, Daru, just 200kms north of Thursday Island is not going to help. Most informed observers think this planned development – under the rubric of China’s New Silk Road mega-scheme – is more spying and not much fishing.

For the Palaszczuk Government these challenges are mostly outside the control of the politicians, apparatchiks and boffins in the Cbus power tower by the Brisbane River.

The premier and her ministers will have two ways of proceeding in the year ahead. They can follow the path of least resistance and stick to the business-as-usual model which seems to be the easy to navigate comfort zone for the Labor elite.

The budget delivered just after the October election fits that “don’t work up a sweat” approach and there’s little to suggest this barely functioning model will be improved upon.

If the government doesn’t raise its sights and ambitions, the sailing could be anything but plain. Voters will start looking for something more, especially if the threat of the virus recedes as vaccines are more commonplace.

Population growth is likely to be better than most other states but still held back because of shuttered international borders.

If Chinese relations don’t improve and the national “return to pre-pandemic economic health” is slower than hoped for, Queensland could continue to suffer as a laggard in any employment revival.

If Treasurer Cameron Dick is up to the task (something very few people in key sectors think is the case), he could reshape the budget by June and start thinking outside not just the box but the room where the box is kept.

Turbo-charging the transition to zero-net emissions, making Queensland the COVID-safe destination for international activity such as film and television production and a source of clean, green agricultural produce, and declaring a war on homelessness and isolation among older people could be four marquee ambitions for the state.

As they say in wire service reports, we’ll see what happens.

Palaszczuk and her ministers are likely to come under new pressure over transparency and accountability, especially in the integrity lane. Both Integrity Commissioner Nikola Stepanov and Triple-C chief snoop Alan MacSporran QC are training their investigative sights on the murky intersection of lobbyist consultants and ministerial offices.

Richly informed gossip around the Queen’s Wharf end of Brisbane says there is plenty into which these zealous nosy-parkers can poke their beaks. It’s suggested some very awkward emails and text messages could increase discomfort in the ranks of some swaggering lobbyists who were frequent visitors to high offices during the election campaign.

Given the ability of the Crime and Corruption Commission to chase parked cars to the point of exhaustion, nothing might come of this but, at the very least, some dark and dirty headlines await.

The LNP might play a meaningful role in all this but don’t count on it. They still don’t have any idea why they lost the election, can’t bring themselves to apologise for that appalling effort and haven’t learnt to shoot straight.

Happy New Year.