With just under 10 per cent of the vote counted, Greens candidate Amy MacMahon had 39.5 per cent with Trad on 34.3 per cent.

ABC election analyst Antony Green said Trad could not win from second place as Liberal National Party preferences would favour the Greens. He later said MacMahon was likely to win on first preference votes alone.

“It looks like Jackie Trad is on the way to being defeated,” Green said.

Trad faced several integrity investigations this term and while she was ultimately cleared of corruption or misconduct, she was nonetheless tarnished and stood down from Cabinet.

As a result, Trad was the target of a savage LNP campaign across the state, and during the campaign had to rule out seeking a return to Cabinet, something Annastacia Palaszczuk continued to be questioned about. Even in Friday’s leaders’ debate, LNP leader Deb Frecklington raised the spectre of Trad’s return to Cabinet, while social media posts declared she would be Labor leader.

MacMahon said voters were “fed up” with the major parties and supported the Greens push for clean energy and higher mining royalties to pay for better public services.

“This sends a message … that it’s time to put Queenslanders first,” MacMahon said.

South Brisbane was also one of the first seats where the LNP decided to preference Labor, an unusual decision that would see the right-wing party preferencing left-wing Greens.

Deputy Premier Steven Miles said South Brisbane would be “challenging”.

“But let’s be clear, it is only challenging because the Liberals had chosen to preference against her,” Miles told the ABC.

“If they had preferenced the Greens last, then Jackie wouldn’t be in trouble at all.”