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A buffoon, perhaps, but Clive can still put the boot in

Clive Palmer’s personal popularity may have waned but in a tight political contest, his advertising millions can’t be ignored, writes Dennis Atkins

Oct 06, 2020, updated Oct 06, 2020
Clive Palmer failed to have an impact on the state election. (AAP Image/Dan Peled)

Clive Palmer failed to have an impact on the state election. (AAP Image/Dan Peled)

Self-styled mining magnate, semi-professional litigant and political busybody Clive Palmer has so far nominated candidates for his United Australia Party in 44 of the 93 electorates up for grabs at the Queensland election at the end of this month.

Will it be a decisive presence, the last roll of the dice for what’s been a decade-long exercise in vanity politics or just enough of a spoiler role to deny Annastacia Palaszczuk a third term in office?

It is going to one of the most fascinating aspects of an election with more moving parts than any other political contest anywhere in Australia this year or in the near future.

In what will be a very tight contest where most commentators and major party operatives are predicting neither Labor nor the LNP getting a majority by themselves, the impact of a party that scored the fifth-highest primary vote in Queensland at last year’s federal poll cannot be ignored.

It’s worth reflecting on just how big the anti-Labor vote was in this state in May, 2019 – so big it supercharged Scott Morrison’s victory and allowed the Prime Minister to proclaim on election night: “How good is Queensland!”

While the LNP vote was virtually unchanged at 43.7 per cent, the combined others on the center-right side of the column took this tally to 58.6 per cent of primary support. The votes for One Nation, Palmer’s UAP, Katter’s Australian Party and Fraser Anning were boosted by a combined swing of about 8.5 per cent. This was the rocket fuel for the anti-Labor vote in that election.

This kind of lurch to the right-wing fringes is unlikely to occur in this coming state poll. Katter’s Australian Party will probably do better than any of the other conservative outliers, with most polls showing One Nation dropping from prominence and relevance while Fraser Anning has disappeared into his own corner of “conspiracy world”.

This leaves Palmer, who is not going to do anything without being noticed. He’s flagged that he’ll spend up to $14 million across the state – including the use of some corporate money, which the Labor Party is planning to challenge in the courts.

In these pandemic crazy times, that kind of money can get you some serious advertising space, especially outside the metropolitan conurbation of the southeast.

Palmer’s message is already featured on billboards around Brisbane and throughout coastal regional and provincial seats.

He has dropped the use of his own face in most advertising – which must surely hurt his ego but is sensible marketing – and replacing it with a generic “Give Labor the Boot” slogan.

This is the kind of simple and direct communication that could prove very effective, especially the further away from Brisbane it is deployed.

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Unlike some of Palmer’s print media ads, which targeted Palaszczuk and her Chief Health Officer Dr Jeannette Young personally, this “give them the boot” call is an emotional pitch that will strike a chord in communities which are weary of Labor after almost six years.

“There are plenty of regional seats where people are just over Labor, regardless of how much they support the Premier, her stand on borders and handling the virus,” one Labor strategist said at the weekend.

“If Palmer stays away from attacking Palaszczuk – which is dumb and is wasted money and effort – he can put some power behind the anti-Labor sentiment in the same way he did in 2019.”

Even if Palmer’s primary vote in the seats he contests runs at about half of the 3.5 per cent he scored federally last year, he can still have some impact in what will be a series of tight contests where those last few preferences are going to be crucial.

Internal polling by both the LNP and Labor is understood to be recording a primary vote for Palmer’s United Australia Party of 2 per cent or more in particular seats. This could be the difference between getting the LNP to 50 per cent and beyond in preferred terms.

The LNP, which is intensely focused on getting its primary vote closer to 38-40 per cent, dismisses Palmer’s presence, saying he’s run his electoral race in Queensland.

“He’s seen as a bit of a buffoon now,” said one LNP campaign insider. “He is not regarded as being a serious voice anymore, especially after he misfired so badly on demanding the borders be opened early.”

This may well be true but almost $15 million of anti-Labor propaganda can make up for a bad reputation. In this subplot, you shouldn’t confuse the message with the messenger.

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