As someone who started watching and writing about national politics in 1976, your diarist is happy to confirm you’ve never seen everything until you’ve seen everything.

This is an election like no other. Yes, it’s a cliche but the moving parts in a genuine fracturing of politics make it compelling and astonishing. Things are happening that many thought impossible but now they are moving into sight, possibly heralding profound change.

For at least a decade participants and observers have suggested the centre left of politics would be under pressure and splinter – something evident through the rise of electoral support for Greens in metropolitan districts.

This election is opening other fronts – on the centre right side of the divide.

In affluent, tertiary educated, established electorates voters have become disillusioned with their traditional political homeland, the Liberals.

Across four capital cities eight Liberal-held seats are under threat from “teal” independents, a loose coalition of candidates united by a commitment to causes headed by climate change and public accountability and transparency.

They all take their political livery from teal coloured T-shirts, first worn by supporters of Zali Steggal, the political giant killer who took out former prime minister Tony Abbott in 2019.

Now the teams behind a host of big profile Liberals have the teal look. In Melbourne’s eastern suburbs – the scene of massive swings at the 2018 state poll – the target MPs don’t get much higher profile.

Treasurer and deputy Liberal leader Josh Frydenberg heads the list with his seat of Kooyong under serious threat. Also wondering if they’ll be looking for new jobs in two weeks are Tim Wilson in Goldstein and Katie Allen in Higgins.

In Sydney Dave Sharma in Wentworth, Trent Zimmerman in North Sydney and Jason Falinski in Mackellar suffer the same asymmetrical danger from teal independents.

Newcomer Rachel Swift in Adelaide’s Boothby and first term sophomore Celia Hammond in the Perth seat of Curtin are fending off something similar.

These Liberals have been portrayed as “moderates” but they actually cover a fair bit of ideological ground in the party. Frydenberg – who loves to colour himself moderate when drawing a contrast with his independent opponent Monique Ryan – is one of the standard bearers of the conservative flag in the Victorian division.

Frydenberg has always been a loyal leader and supporter of the group led by his colleague Michael Sukkar with his sub-group of conservatives known as the “ambitious faction”.

Regardless of their exact position on the factional spectrum, they are being targeted because community-based Liberal supporters are not happy they sit with the Nationals who many believe dictate policy. They recite the words of senior Nationals, especially firebrands like Queenslander Matt Canavan, to illustrate what they say is a position on climate that’s at least compromised or worse, a fallacy.

A number of these sitting Liberals will lose their seats – the most likely to fall are Wilson and Frydenberg in Victoria, Sharma and Falinski in Sydney, Swift in Adelaide and Hammond in Perth.

This coupled with a strong Labor vote – confirmed in both major published polls today – makes the most likely outcome of this election a comfortable ALP majority with a Liberal bench depleted by inner metro losses.

On top of this the Nationals part of the Coalition could suffer its own electoral haemorrhaging with at least two and maybe four seats at risk.

The Nationals are worried about losing Nicholls in northern Victoria where independent Rob Priestly could exploit the space between the two Coalition parties (both standing because it’s an open seat after the retirement of MP Damien Drum) and could also see the Central Queensland electorate of Hinkler fall because of the candidacy of former LNP state minister and local Bundaberg mayor Jack Dempsey.

Other Nationals seats in danger are Groom just to the north west of Brisbane (and seat with the second highest conservative vote in the country) and Calare and Cowper in the central west and coast of New South Wales. These three have community “Voices 4” candidates and could be the scene of upsets.

On ABC Radio National’s Sunday Extra at the weekend the godmother of the current new wave of independents, former Indi MP Cathy McGowan, said she could find 23 of these non-aligned candidates. McGowan also pointed out only a few were coloured teal with others in shades of red, orange and hues in between.

The activity of local members in most of these seats – ranging from entitled outrage to panic – betrays the anxiety in Liberal ranks.

However, these people in the Liberal party have only themselves to blame. They have taken these voters for granted while the party’s leadership has aggressively targeted the blokey, outer suburban vote.

It is the kind of political schism that’s been linked to Labor until now. Labor still has its problems but Morrison has single-handedly taken the fracture in his own party to the point of existential crisis.

The hysterical denunciation by Morrison and his establishment cheer squad in some parts of the media of the teal and Voices 4 independents reinforces their clueless attitude to what’s happening.

Instead of berating the candidates for daring to take part in the democratic process, they should look at why tens of thousands of “quiet Australians” in these seats are putting up their hands, volunteering and, over the next two weeks, voting for a change many thought impossible.

Nowhere has this electoral shift been more apparent than in the climate debate. Morrison takes personal credit for having finally delivered an end to the climate wars: “I mean, net zero by 2050. You know … how difficult that was. My predecessor couldn’t achieve it,” he boasted at the end of last week.

He might have “achieved it” but it was a late, narrow and, for most people, unsatisfactory delivery which is why people in these “teal” seats are walking away from the Liberals.

Morrison only ever saw net zero as a political transaction – he has no commitment to the policy aims underpinning it let alone the crisis it represents. He had it as something on his pre-election to-do list.

People in the suburbs of Kew, Dover Heights and Glenelg reckon Morrison carrying a lump of coal into the Parliament is a greater indication of just what the Liberal leader believes.

If current trends are reflected in two weeks, this could be a shock the country will feel for years to come. It could be the most consequential election anyone has seen.