Sitting on a skinny two-seat majority, Labor is certain to lose in some electorates, most probably in the Central or far north Queensland regions. The top contenders for this casualty list are Townsville, Thuringowa, Cook, Keppel and Barron River.
Outside that handful of possible losses, there are a small number of other seats that could fall. The more of these losses which are realised the harder it becomes for Labor to maintain its grip on government.
To make up for these losses, Labor is looking to pick up seats to the immediate north and south of Brisbane – around the Sunshine and Gold Coasts and the outer suburban districts nearby.
Pumicestone, based around Bribie Island, is top of this list with Caloundra and Currumbin also high up in calculations for Labor gains. Burleigh is in the next ring of “maybe” pickups as is another Gold Coast prize in Coomera.
Elsewhere, Labor fancies its chances in Bundaberg and the resources seat of Burdekin southwest of Townsville.
The LNP is going to struggle to find any further wins beyond those in the north although some strategists have hopes for Brisbane electorates Aspley and Mansfield.
One seat where the LNP is well placed for a win is Maiwar, the old Indooroopilly seat that was lost to the Greens in 2017.
This gain might be neutralised with the loss of Oodgeroo – the old seat of Redlands – which everyone says is leaning towards a surprise win for independent candidate Claire Richardson.
The Greens’ dream of winning three inner-city Brisbane seats – holding Maiwar and taking McConnell and South Brisbane from the ALP – might not be realised.
Labor is very bullish about holding the central Brisbane seat of McConnell but there is pessimism about Jackie Trad surviving in South Brisbane.
In the north, Katter’s Australian Party looks like holding its position as a force to deal with by holding its four seats and having a chance in one or two others. The Katters should at least regain party status and the resources that go with that determination.
As always, this Queensland poll has many moving parts and few are going in the same direction.
Beyond all this there is always a seat or two that pops up on the night and everyone asks, where did that come from?
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