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A brave stance, or is LNP strategy playing into the hands of Labor?

LNP leader Deb Frecklington issued a bold and very brave warning in her official campaign launch speech at the weekend.

Oct 19, 2020, updated Oct 19, 2020
LNP leader Deb Frecklington. (Photo: ABC)

LNP leader Deb Frecklington. (Photo: ABC)

“Queenslanders cannot afford to make the wrong choice this election,” Frecklington told supporters at the luxe Emporium Hotel in South Brisbane.

This might be what the LNP thinks but it runs counter to how the party’s campaign should be framed.

The two classic election campaign strategies are to make the contest either a choice – usually matching one leader against the opponent – or a referendum on the governing party’s performance in office.

Given Annastacia Palaszczuk’s superior favourability and preferred premier ratings – even before she attained an extra sheen for her handling of the COVID-19 pandemic – the “choice” election was always going to be Labor’s main chance.

This is why Labor’s running a presidential campaign built around Palaszczuk – showcasing her leadership and standing.

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For the LNP, the best pathway to power has always been to build a case for voters to cast a judgment on the last two terms of Labor in power.

As polls prior to the pandemic demonstrated, this was a potentially winning strategy and one Labor would find hard to counter. Even with the lustre of handling the health crisis, there is enough concern about the resilience and underlying strength of the Queensland economy to power the case for making this election a referendum on the Palaszczuk Government in office.

In this context, it is a brave (some would say crazy brave) call to warn voters not to make a mistake in their choice at the election.

At this election it’s the LNP that presents as the risky choice for three reasons: the legacy of Campbell Newman’s government, the lack of voters’ trust in Frecklington and the doubts about the Opposition’s economic credentials.

That’s the danger. When you tell someone don’t make a mistake, they might think the mistake they’re faced with is to vote for change at a time of great insecurity and uncertainty.

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