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Oil price slump could have telling impact on inflation (in a good way)

There is a prospect that oil prices could start to work in favour of Australians, particularly mortgage holders.

 

Oct 06, 2023, updated Oct 06, 2023
A plunge in the oil price could impact the Australian economy (Photo: AAP Image/Julian Smith)

A plunge in the oil price could impact the Australian economy (Photo: AAP Image/Julian Smith)

The price has plunged in recent days with CommSec’s Tom Piotrowski describing it as a “big retreat”.

The global benchmark Brent crude fell almost 2 per cent to $US84.17 a barrel.

“This comes as a bit of a relief as well because that has underlined the move higher for interest rates,” he told Sky News Australia.

“So in the last couple of days, we’ve seen a $US13 price range on the US benchmark; last night down by two 2 cent or a $1.86 – $2.41.

“So that’s another factor that’s taken the heat out of the interest rate markets.”

The oil price had jumped 30 per cent in recent months and that had led to a sharp rise in petrol prices to a record peak of $2.37 a litre.

The RACQ said prices could fall back to $1.80 a litre if the oil price is maintained or falls lower.

Economist Stephen Koukoulas said that fall in the oil price could have a significant impact on the Australian economy.

“The incredible fall in the oil price will see that blip in headline inflation unblip in November and December. Annual inflation to fall to 3-point-something by year end.”

He said inflation was therefore likely to be in the RBA target range of between 2 and 3 per cent by 2024.

That could have an impact on whether or not the RBA lifts the cash rate later this year.

RACQ spokesman Ian Jeffreys said Brisbane and the Gold Coast were still at the top of the price cycle but the fall in the oil price would soon have an impact.

“It will take two to three weeks, possibly four weeks, before we move through the cycle and get to the next low point,” he said.

Fuel markets in the regions behaved differently and were reasonably priced.

“If you can hold off for the next two or three weeks,” he said.

 

 

 

 

 

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