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Steady as she goes: RBA’s new boss Bullock plays straight bat to spiking inflation

The Reserve Bank has left interest rates on hold with board claiming it was on track to bring inflation back to the 2 to 3 per cent range.

Oct 03, 2023, updated Oct 03, 2023
A general view of a Commonwealth Bank branch in Melbourne, Thursday, August 31, 2023. (AAP Image/Joel Carrett) NO ARCHIVING

A general view of a Commonwealth Bank branch in Melbourne, Thursday, August 31, 2023. (AAP Image/Joel Carrett) NO ARCHIVING

If anything the new Governor, Michele Bullock, appeared to be little different from her predecessor in her statements about the economy and how the RBA was performing.

Under Bullock, a “tightening bias” remained in place.

The board overlooked the recent blip in headline inflation which some said may force its hand, or at least push it into a more hawkish attitude.

However, interest rates appear to be on hold for the immediate future, according to economists.

The decision came as data showed housing finance approvals rose 2.2 per cent as owner occupiers moved back into the housing market to buy existing dwellings.

“The picture continues to be one of a gradual uptrend coming from a weak starting point,” Westpac said.

REA Group economist Cameron Kusher said the comments from the bank indicated that the RBA don’t think they’ll need to hike again and don’t want to, “but also don’t want people to categorically think this is the cash rate peak in case inflation remains more persistent than expected”.

That was a reference to the RBA Governor’s comment that: “Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe, but that will continue to depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks.”

RateCity said the decision had many feeling optimistic that rate hikes were a thing of the past but the big four banks were still talking of at least one more hike before the year ends.

“But almost all experts are predicting 2024 will bring rate cuts, so borrowers for have some reprieve on the horizon,” RateCity said.

The CBA has a prediction of a December 2024 cash rate of 3.1 per cent. It’s currently 4.1 per cent.

Westpac said the next cut would be in August and the cash rate would be 2.85 per cent by August 2025. The NAB has also tipped an August rate cut and a 3.1 cash rate by February 2025.

The ANZ said the next cut would be in November 2024.

Head of Access Economics Pradeep Philip said the decision by the RBA to hold rates was the correct one.

“And business and households will breathe a collective sigh of relief in a slowing economy,” he said.

“Although inflation was slightly higher in August than it was in July, that increase was driven by an increase in the cost of more volatile items like fuel, energy, and holiday travel. If you exclude these items, underlying inflation in the year to August was lower than it was in the year to July.

“Price inflation across these more volatile categories is being driven by supply-side pressures, like global energy prices. As we have been saying for months, increasing the cash rate is only good for reducing demand-side pressures like consumer demand.

“There is clear evidence of a slowing economy – with confidence waning, consumer spending weak, and the retail sector in the doldrums.

“Increasing interest rates in this environment would have simply added to the economic risks facing the economy.

“Looking ahead, the September quarter inflation figures due this month will weigh heavily on the next meeting of the RBA Board.  All eyes will be on whether every inflation data point is a nail for the RBA interest rate hammer.”

 

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