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Brisbane’s 43 per cent surge: House prices soar as rich help their kids into market

Westpac has forecast that by 2025 Brisbane would have gone through five years of spectacular real estate growth of about 43 per cent.

Aug 07, 2023, updated Aug 07, 2023
The wealthy are helping family and friends into the market

The wealthy are helping family and friends into the market

By comparison, Sydney would achieve 36 per cent, Melbourne 33 per cent and Perth 46 per cent.

Underlining just how extraordinary the market has been, Westpac’s senior economist Matthew Hassen revised its expectations for this year for 7 per cent growth nationally, up from zero. Brisbane house prices were expected to jump 6 per cent his year.

Hassan said it was possible that high-income households were generating much of the demand in the housing market because they had been less affected by high cost-of-living pressures and had retained much of the savings accumulated during Covid.

The bank speculated that it could be this group that was helping first-home buyers who were friends of family connections into the market.

“This may explain why we are seeing first home buyer activity remain surprisingly elevated despite worsening affordability constraints,” he said.

He said dwelling prices nationally had risen 4 per cent so far this year the market was now in a “broadening recovery”.

He said the gains looked to be coming from a sharp acceleration in immigration and the subsequent tightening of rental markets while supply remained weak.

“The turnaround in price growth has een strongest for marklets where population growth has seen the sharpest pick-up and much more muted in markets that have seen a less pronounced shift,” he said.

“The surge in net migration inflows is showing no signs of slowing and instead looks to have accelerated further over 2023.”

He said Westpac was now expecting immigration figures for 2023 to be about 450,000.

The bank has forecast the Brisbane market to rise 6 per cent this year, 4 per cent in 2024 and 3 per cent in 2025. That follows rises in 2020 of 4 per cent, 27 per cent in 2021 and a -1 per cent in 2022, for a total of 43 per cent over the period.

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