A Roy Morgan survey has revealed to the industry that Australians would spend $9.3 billion in the sales, about $2.4 billion of that would be spent in Queensland an increase of 41 per cent on 2022.

That is in contrast to the expectation in NSW which was for a big fall in spending of 22 per cent.

The $9.3 billion total is an increase of $500 million on last year, but the survey found there would be a significant fall in the number of people spending.

The secret weapon is older Australians, aged between 50 and 64, which is the age group that is largely unaffected by interest rate increases because they have either paid down or paid off their mortgages.

Roy Morgan said the older age group were likely to be the biggest shoppers and would be responsible for about 37 per cent of the spending, or $3.5 billion.

Online shopping was also expected to take about 51 per cent of the spending and Australian Retailers Association chief executive Paul Zahra said one of the reasons for that was the colder weather.

It was expected that on average each shopper would spend about $1616, an increase of about $200 on last year.

He said the end of the financial year was also a popular time to spend on work equipment like computers because it allowed people and businesses to access the tax write-offs quickly.

The buoyant forecasts follow consumer confidence data showing Australians were not in the mood to spend and Zahra said there was a significant drop in the number of Australians who were likely to be participating in the sales.

“We are in the midst of a cost-of-living crisis and this is certainly reflected by the fact that 400,000 fewer Australians will be opening their wallets in the midyear/EOFY sales,” Zahra said.

“Discretionary spending is certainly softening, but the reality is that those not significantly impacted by interest rate increases are looking for great deals and are prompted by the end of financial year sales to purchase items for work or business that they can claim as a tax deduction.”

ANZ said the end of financial year sales would be the key to how the second quarter consumer spending figures shape up.

“There is generally a pickup in spending in the second half of June. If this does not occur this year, it will signal even further weakness ahead as households navigate higher interest rates and ongoing inflation,” the bank said.

June has revealed a “materially weaker” spend.

Queensland based Retail Food Group revealed a downturn in its sales for the second half of the year.

The company, which owns the Gloria Jeans, Donut King and Brumby’s Bakeries brands, said trading conditions had eased in recent weeks. However, it has maintained its earnings guidance of the year.