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What a difference a day makes – and why 24 hours might decide if we get another rates hike

One day could make a big difference in whether the Reserve Bank lifts interest rates at its June meeting, according to the Queensland Investment Corporation.

May 19, 2023, updated May 19, 2023
QIC chief economist Matthew Peter (Image supplied)

QIC chief economist Matthew Peter (Image supplied)

Chief economist Matthew Peter said the release of the wages growth and unemployment figures this week would not be enough to sway the bank into lifting rates.

However, he said the crucial issue now was productivity, which remains below where it should be.

“What the RBA will want to see is productivity picking up and the growth in unit labour costs coming down before it is definitely on the sideline in respect of future rate hikes,” Peter said.

“The next RBA board meeting is on June 6 and that’s a day before the release of the March quarter national accounts which will give us a read on productivity.

“Given that we have immigration rates that will stop the unemployment from dipping back down quickly and we have wage growth stalling for the moment, I think that will give the RBA reason to pause in June but really, future meetings are definitely live.”

He said one more rate hike was still probable.

“I think its one more or hold (next month), but one more and it’s done and dusted,” he said.

Other economists have similar views, but Morgan’s economist Michael Knox predicts four more rate hikes.

The Commonwealth Bank predicts a one more hike then cuts in the cash rate to 2.6 per cent from the current 3.85 per cent by August next year.

ANZ has forecast a peak in the cash rate of 4.1 per cent by August.

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