Westpac has also tipped a pause while the ANZ said inflation was still too strong and the central bank would need to hike again next week by .25 per cent.

The NAB said there would be an increase next week and that would be the last before rate cuts next year while QIC said the RBA had been looking for a reason to pause its hiking.

QIC chief economist Matthew Peter said the general pressure being faced by RBA board and Governor Philip Lowe from the bank’s conduct in relation to monetary policy – which resulted in the boom-bust cycle of the housing market and dissatisfaction with the RBA – mist be weighing on them.

“Most people wouldn’t be human if they couldn’t feel the angst the rise in interest rates has had and been expressed by the community.” Peter said.

“I don’t think they are going to raise rates next Tuesday.”

He said the board may increase rates again after that but the so-called terminal rate (where the hikes would stop in this cycle) would be 3.85 per cent, from its current 3.6 per cent.

The CBA said there was a 55 per cent chance of a pause and a 45 per cent probability of an increase.

“The actions of many other central banks globally over the past two weeks lend weight to the RBA continuing to tighten policy despite some concerns within pockets of the global banking system,” CBA’s head of Australian economics Gareth Aird said.

“But the domestic economy is now showing sufficient signs of slowing and we expect the RBA will judge that a pause in the tightening cycle is the appropriate move in April.

“The board can resume increasing the cash rate in May following a pause in April if the economic data makes the case.”

The forecasts follow data showing that inflation had peaked in December and had fallen quickly and steeply since then.

Aird said 45 per cent of the previous increases in the Reserve Bank cash rate had passed through to mortgage repayments by the end of 2022.

“We believe the (RBA) policy is now in restrictive territory,” he said.

“Reading between the lines (of RBA announcements) it is clear that the RBA would like to pause the tightening cycle, but the board wants to see sufficient evidence in the domestic economic data that demand is cooling.”

The NAB said it expected the RBA to raise the cash rate by .25 per cent in April.

“Though we now see the resulting 3.85 per cent rate as the peak (previously 4.1 per cent). Further out, we continue to see rate cuts in the first half of 2024 bringing the cash rate back to 3.1 per cent as the economy slows and unemployment rises,” it said.

“The key question for the RBA board is whether the current level of interest rates is now sufficiently high to ensure inflation sustainably returns to target in a reasonable time frame.

“In part, this depends on wage pressures remaining contained and expectations for inflation staying anchored. Based on the RBA’s statements and forecasts, a peak cash rate of 3.6% is unlikely to be seen as sufficiently restrictive by the board, necessitating one more increase before a pause to assess how the effects of prior monetary policy tightening flow through.”