Jobs still strong, rates to climb as almost 90,000 people flood into Qld
The nation’s jobless figures have fallen back to 3.5 per cent, adding weight to the belief that the Reserve Bank board will ignore the global economic turmoil from the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank and increase the cash rate when it meets next month.
Another 114,000 people moved into the state in the year to September, a rise of 2.2 per cent, with almost 90,000 of them coming from interstate and overseas. (Image: Unsplash)
Economists believed that there were two more rate hikes still to come.
The futures market is pricing in a cut in rates in the next three months because of the global rout caused by bank collapses in the US, but ANZ said the underlying momentum of the economy and inflation would force the RBA hand.
“The large gain in employment in February (64,000) was more than enough to offset the softness seen in January and suggests seasonal factors, rather than a turn in labour market conditions, were behind the softer January result,” ANZ senior economist Adelaide Timbrell said.
In Queensland, unemployment was slightly higher than the national figure at 3.8 per cent and the number of people employed fell by 0.8 per cent. The state’s participation rate also remains low at 65.8 per cent after a fall in February.
However, one factor that may help explain Queensland’s position is the extraordinary population growth that continues in the state.
Another 114,000 people moved into the state in the year to September, a rise of 2.2 per cent, with almost 90,000 of them coming from interstate and overseas.
The next closest state in percentage terms was WA with 1.8 per cent, but that only represented 50,000 people.
The population numbers show that overseas migration is now almost the same as interstate migration.
The natural increase in Queensland (births minus deaths) was 25,000. Net overseas arrivals were 42,000 and interstate migration was a net 46,000.
The surge of people into the state is considered both a positive and a negative in terms of social issues.
Increased population numbers can rejuvenate an economy but it can also increase social pressures for housing and other basics.
Internationally, Credit Suisse has been forced to go to Switzerland’s central bank for $81 billion to calm nervous traders. It has also said it would buy back three billion francs of dollar and euro-denominated debt.
The bank was forced into the move after its share plunged 30 per cent over concerns about its liquidity.
That followed a run that saw the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank in the US.
