He said the Saudi Crown prince Mohammed bin Salman had been boasting recently about how the Gulf nations were heading into an enormous era of prosperity over the next five years, much of it linked to oil prices.

Knox said that in combination with this the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol had predicted Russia oil production was going to fall by 1 million barrels a day while global demand would increase  by 3 million barrels a day.

“We are already in a situation where right now supply is pretty much equaling demand, but we have a million barrels a day disappearing because of the Russians and 2mb of additional demand, so you are short 3mb when you get to the second half of the year,’’ Knox said.

While about 900,000 barrels a day could come from China, Knox said Birol also suggested “that supply growth will not be strong enough may mean in the second half of this year tightness in the market unless OPEC+ countries change their position’’.

Knox said there was some spare capacity but not enough.

“It entirely depends on the decisions of the two major producers of OPEC and whether they wish to supply,” he said.

“So, the game is entirely within their control and therefore they can generate a price that will give them enormous prosperity or they can supply the market.’’

“The game is entirely in the control of the Saudis and the Emirates.

“If they do what we expect them to do, play it tough, we will have a very strong price move in the second half of the year.

“We won’t know until the second half of the year.’’

Oil prices have a significant impact on the cost of production and transport. However, oil prices also impact the prices of other energy commodities such as coal and gas and Australia was seen as a major energy producer.