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Terracom takes the crown in a year when coal (and the Broncos) came out on top

Given the complaining about royalties you could be forgiven for thinking that coal companies were down and out but among Queensland listed companies they have boomed.

Dec 23, 2022, updated Dec 23, 2022
Coal is likely to shape debate in the upcoming election (File image)

Coal is likely to shape debate in the upcoming election (File image)

Terracom, which is a predominantly thermal coal producer in Queensland and South Africa, has seen share price growth of 397 per cent this year (up until Thursday’s close), by far the best performer among a fairly dismal bunch this year.

Fellow coal producers Stanmore jumped about 200 per cent, New Hope was up 181 per cent and Bowen Coking Coal was up 82 per cent.

Far East Gold, which recently reported good drilling results from Woyla in Indonesia, was one of the few other miners to perform strongly. Its shares were up 98 per cent on the start of the year.

Only about a fifth of the 100 or so Queensland-based listed companies had positive share price growth this year and it was energy that dominated those that did perform well.

But there were a few surprises, like the tightly-held Broncos. Its shares were up 57 per cent for the year so far. Take it back a full 12 months and it’s an 86 per cent increase.

More than 90 per cent of its shares were held by the top 20 shareholders, including News Corp and very few actually trade.

There was no apparent reason for the increase. It certainly didn’t appear to be based on the club’s on-field performance. However, stocks as tightly held as the Broncos don’t need much to move the share price.

Stockbroker Wilsons said resources had been overall winner in 2022 because of the soaring price for coal and gas.

“The all-important iron ore sector has held up surprisingly well overall, staging a comeback in recent months, along with China-focused industrial commodities like copper, in the hope that China relaxes its Covid stance in 2023,” Wilsons Rob Crookston said.

“The standout mining sub-sector has undoubtedly been electric vehicle minerals. The lithium carbonate price has risen 100 per cent over the year on strong demand from the growing EZV uptake and concerns of a looming supply deficit, benefiting ASX lithium players considerably.”

Lithium company Allkem was up 4 per cent on the start of the year while Sayona was up 42 per cent. They were doing much better than before the start of the week, but lithium stocks took a hiding on the market.

Crookston said there would be a shift in focus towards earnings in 2023, driven by a belief that interest rate increases would end and there would be a shift away from valuations.

A global economic slowdown would also shift the focus towards earnings and bond yields were expected to fall as the market became more cautious about growth.

“For our Australian equity strategy, this means a shift towards companies with predictable earnings or structural earnings growth that are less a risk of earnings downgrades in an economic slowdown,” he said.

Companies like Macquarie were able to increase market share or buy assets in an economic downturn.

“We still hold companies like James Hardie, Macquarie and Nine Entertainment that are cyclically exposed. However, these companies come out of the other side of slowdowns or recessions in a stronger position than when they entered them,” he said.

“Healthcare is our pick of the sectors in 2023.”

He said Wilsons remained cautious about China’s reopening. The firm was underweight on the iron ore producers but overweight on lithium, rare earths and oil and gas, which were all exposed to China.

But as an investor much of the Queensland market was a disaster this year, outside coal mining stocks. Copper producer Aeris Resources was down 93 per cent on the start of the year. The stock has started to trend up in recent weeks, but it was not alone in having a shocker.

Financial technology company EML fell 84 per cent after its European debacle and its leadership changes.

Novonix dropped 85 per cent and Star Entertainment dropped 47 per cent after the disastrous revelations about money laundering and cover-ups.

Commercialisation company PPK was down 84 per cent and its battery subsidiary LIS Energy was down 78 per cent.

Vita Group was down 69 per cent but at least it returned a truck load of cash to shareholders after Telstra withdrew its retail outlets and Vita was forced to pivot into the beauty therapy industry.

Share prices were assessed on market close 22/12/2022

 

 

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