According to the ANZ’s Stateometer report, the rapid rise in international arrivals in the three month period to the end of September led to the surge in the trade component.

Retail trade dropped in volume but rising prices caused the nominal sales to rise 1 per cent for the quarter.

Housing was a sour note for the state’s economy as building approvals fell 2.8 per cent and lending dropped 14.8 per cent.

“Business conditions in Queensland are strong and have steadily improved to outperform other major states,” it said, but also noted there had been a moderation in business confidence.

“Queensland has elevated capacity utilisation compared with the national average.

“Queensland household spending is ahead of the national average.

“ANZ-observed spending shows that Queensland spending growth since 2019 has been above the national average throughout 2022.

“Interstate migration and the resultant rise in population has played a part in lifting Queensland’s consumption.”

A separate report from the bank said leading indicators in the national economy had shifted and home owners were not likely to see interest rates fall before the end of 2024, but wages should continue to grow at or above 4 per cent and inflation would fall sharply from next year, according to ANZ

The bank had previously forecast the first rate cut to occur in August, 2024, but has pushed that out to November and said the Reserve Bank’s cash rate would hit 3.6 per cent at that time, a bit higher than its previous forecast of 3.35 per cent.

“Unemployment won’t fall as far as previously expected but should stay very low at a forecast 3.3 to 3.4 per cent,” a report from ANZ’s head of Australian economics David Plank and senior economist Catherine Birch said.

“Employment growth has slowed but is still exceeding labour force growth.”

The report said there would be a gradual rise in unemployment from the second half of next year which would gain speed in 2024