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Brisbane now ‘the epicentre’ of one of Australia’s worst housing crashes

Brisbane was at the epicentre of potentially Australia’s biggest housing crash with the annualised rate of the fall in values at 20 per cent, according to Coolabah Capital economist Christopher Joye.

Nov 22, 2022, updated Nov 22, 2022
Brisbane home prices were falling at an annulaised rate of 20 per cent (Photo: Martin K Jacobsen)

Brisbane home prices were falling at an annulaised rate of 20 per cent (Photo: Martin K Jacobsen)

While the city’s peak-to-trough fall in house prices was still only at -7.7 per cent it was leading all the other capitals with an annualised rate of more than 20 per cent.

Joye said that in comparison Sydney’s annualised rate of fall was 17 per cent. Nationally, after seven consecutive interest rate rises, the fall in house prices is running at annualised rate of 14 per cent.

“Our forecast for a record Aussie house price correction of 15-25 per cent, which we published in October last year, remains unchanged,” Joye said

“The epicenter of what will likely become the biggest housing crash in modern Aussie history has shifted from Sydney to Brisbane, where prices are currently falling at an incredible 20.3 per cent annual rate (Brisbane values have already shrunk 7.7 per cent peak-to-trough thus far).”

But next year, the market could get even worse with an anticipated $500 billion in fixed rate home loans rolling over, meaning the term of the loan would end and the repayments for many people with those loans was likely to jump considerably. Some homeowners currently on fixed rates could see their mortgage rates double.

An eighth increase in the cash rate was expected in December with most economists expecting a rise of .25 per cent. Westpac said it expected that the inflation pulse would be sufficiently strong in the first half of 2023 for the Reserve Bank to see the need for the cash rate to be lifted, for the final time, to 3.85 per cent by May.

That could mean mortgage rates from the banks above 6 per cent.

But Joye said the rate of the fall in house prices appeared to be slowing.

Property analysts CoreLogic said the boom in regional house prices also appeared to be over.

Six of the most popular regional lifestyle markets had taken a big hit. The Richmond Tweed region was down 11.7 per cent, the Sunshine Coast was down 7.1 per cent and the Gold Coast 6.4 per cent.

The regional Queensland market fell 4 per cent in the three months to the end of October while Brisbane was down 6.4 per cent over the same period.

But there were bright spots. Cairns and Townsville recorded the highest annual increase in unit values in the year to October. Cairns units jumped 18.9 per cent while Townsville was up 17.4 per cent.

In the rental market, Brisbane is up 13.5 per cent for the year to the end of October, the highest in the nation. Regional Queensland rents were up 12.1, by far the highest of all the state’s regional areas.

 

 

 

 

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