Queensland’s economy should be a major beneficiary as coal, LNG and metals like copper drive export earnings.

The Federal Government’s commodity forecaster, the Office of The Chief Economist said Australian coal and LNG exports should achieve relatively high prices because of the stranding of Russian production by sanctions.

Those sanctions and the onset of winter in the northern hemisphere was likely to see European countries continue to stock up on energy commodities.

But the boom has a foreseeable decline with exports falling to a still healthy $375 billion in 2023-24. It was anticipated that lithium exports would jump by as much as 180 per cent to almost $14 billion in 2022-23, up from $5 billion in 2020-21.

The forecast was based on buyers diversifying from China.

Other commodities needed for the energy transition, such as copper and nickel, were expected to earn $33 billion in 2022-23, double the level of 2020-21.

But the coal forecasts were good news for companies like New Hope and Adani, which produce thermal coal for electricity generation. The forecaster tipped prices for the commodity to remain “extremely high”.

Metallurgical coal, used in steel making, and a major export from Queensland, was expected to settle around $US200 a tonne, which would keep it in the top tier of the State Government’s new royalties regime of 45 per cent.

“In the coming two years, it is likely that the resource and energy sectors will make a significant contribution to real GDP growth,” the forecast said.

“Coal producers will see to lift output and exports in response to record high prices and margins. Non-ferrous metal production should experience healthy growth.”

Mining investment in the metals sector had also picked up but remained flat for coal, despite strong prices.

LNG earnings in 2022-23 and 2023-24 have been revised up by $6 billion and $13 billion.

“Gas/LNG shortages are causing some nations to see thermal coal to generate power for heating for the forthcoming winter. Thermal coal earnings in 2022-23 have been revised up by $18 billion and $7 billion, respectively,” the forecast said.

Metallurgical coal was tipped to produce $58 billion in 2022-23 and $44 billion in 2023-24.

China’s bans on Australian coal were expected to be maintained but India, which was already the world’s biggest importer of met coal, was expected to grow its imports further.