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What were you thinking? A day after half-percent hike, bank boss to explain himself

A speech by the head of the central bank may offer more clues on how fast and high interest rates will rise.

Sep 08, 2022, updated Sep 08, 2022
RBA Governor Philip Lowe

RBA Governor Philip Lowe

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Dr Philip Lowe is due to speak about where the economy is headed and the role of monetary policy on Thursday.

His speech follows another rate hike this week, the fifth in a row, in an effort to tame soaring inflation.

Lowe has made it clear there will be more rate hikes in coming months, although noted the bank was “not on a pre-set path”.

Based on a slight shift in rhetoric, some economists think the central bank might start slowing its policy tightening and perhaps pause hikes to see the impact of its decisions.

Commonwealth Bank economists expect the 50 basis point rise on Tuesday to be the last supersized hike in this tightening cycle, and expect a 25 basis point increase in October to take the cash rate to 2.60 per cent.

“This is around the RBA’s estimate of the neutral level – a cash rate level not considered too stimulatory or restrictive for the economy – given the recent softening in economic data and deteriorating sentiment,” CommSec economist Ryan Felsman said.

However, economists believe there’s a chance the cash rate will reach 2.85 per cent by the end of the year.

The RBA’s latest decision has also prompted calls for Dr Lowe’s resignation.

Both the Greens and Nationals senator Matt Canavan have called for the central bank boss to resign because he promised rates would not start rising until 2024.

The Labor government has dismissed the suggestion, with Treasurer Jim Chalmers arguing it is not for him to “second guess the decisions taken by the independent Reserve Bank”.

“They’ve got an important and difficult job to do, as does the government, and I’m focused on the government’s job,” he told reporters.

While rate hikes did little to dampen growth figures in June – with GDP lifting by 0.9 per cent in the June quarter – economists expect the impacts of policy tightening to show up in the following quarter.

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