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Confidence takes a whack after fourth straight rates hike

Consumer confidence took an increasingly gloomy turn last week after the Reserve Bank increased interest rates for a fourth month in a row, two long-running surveys indicate.

Aug 09, 2022, updated Aug 09, 2022
Discretionary spending is drying up (Photo: AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts)

Discretionary spending is drying up (Photo: AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts)

The Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment showed consumer index fell 3.0 per cent last week, its ninth consecutive monthly decline.

“This reading is on par with the lows of the Covid (pandemic) and Global Financial Crisis although still well above the lows during the late 80’s / early ’90s recession,” said Westpac chief economist Bill Evans.

The monthly survey is based on 1200 adults queried last week, from August 1 through 4.

“It seems likely that inflation, which we still see as the major negative for confidence over this period, has been weighing particularly heavily on the attractiveness of consumer durables,” Mr Evans said, using a term to refer to consumer goods that last at least three years.

“It is ominous that the pace of these price increases has been increasing rapidly.”

Meanwhile the weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Rating also showed consumer confidence sinking last week, by 4.5 per cent, more than offsetting the index’s gains the three previous weeks.

The report is based on 1528 interviews conducted online and over the telephone last week.

ANZ senior economist Adelaide Timbrell told Ausbiz TV while sentiment was low, consumers were still spending, which likely meant Australia would be able to avoid a recession.

“While we do expect to see a pullback in spending at some point, we haven’t seen any more pullback yet,” she said.

“Overall we are seeing really resilient household spending, really resilient savings behaviour, particularly among those who have the most mortgage debt.”

Another consumer confidence report, the monthly Westpac Consumer Confidence Index, will be released later on Tuesday.

NAB’s business survey will also be released, for a trifecta of information on how consumers and businesses are feeling.

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