Media reports from China cite a submission that has been sent to China’s senior leaders to end the ban because of fears the Russia-Ukraine war could tighten coal supplies even more.

The speculation has sent shares in coal companies soaring. Based on yesterday’s market close Terracom shares have jumped 25 per cent in the past week, New Hope 17 per cent, Coronado 16 per cent, Whitehaven 15 per cent and Stanmore 10 per cent.

The thawing in the relationship between Australia and China started with the election of the Albanese Government but progress towards the lifting of its bans on some of Australia’s major commodities is not guaranteed.

Shaw and Partners head of research Andrew Hines said it could be a very good time to buy shares in the miners and not just those in coal.

Morgans has also said it expected near-record levels of dividends from the mining sector.

Hines said current investment plans would not allow the world to meet its climate change goals.

“The implications are obvious – without investment, we won’t have the raw materials to enable the energy transition.  We will fail on meeting climate targets.

“The prices of raw materials will remain highly elevated – copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, graphite, aluminium – all are likely to remain in what we call an incentive price environment _ a price high enough to incentivise investment.

“It is wrong to blame the Russia-Ukraine conflict for the increase in oil, gas and coal prices. They were already rising ahead of Russia invading Ukraine.

“Prices are elevated because demand remains strong and investment in new supply has plummeted.

“If we’re not investing in ‘new energy’ then ‘old energy’ demand is going to be stronger than you think.

“When countries like Germany start turning back on coal fired power stations and abandon their 2030 electric vehicle commitments you know the energy transition is going wrong.”

Morgans has also said the market may be wrong to think there was an emerging collapse in earnings.

Co-head of research and senior analyst Fiona Buchanan said earnings per share growth were strong and the price to earnings ratio of the ASX 200 was low at 13.5 times.

“The tug of war between what the market expects to happen is at odds with what is currently occurring,” she said.

“We don’t disagree that higher interest rates portend lower economic growth but is the market right to be worried about a collapse in earnings expectations? We don’t think so but August (reporting season) won’t hold all the answers.”

She said while the risk of a negative surprise was high there were 32 companies Morgans had identified as potentially delivering a positive surprise. Nine were expected to disappoint.

Those with industry tailwinds were Corporate Travel Management, AGL, Seek, Orora and EBOS. Those with a strong outlook according to Morgans were CSL, Lovisa, Amcor, Treasury Wines, Medibank/NIB and PeopleIn.

The mining sector’s best were BHP, Santos, South 32, Whitehaven and New Hope.