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Allkem rejects lithium fears after share price rout

After copping a battering in its share price last week, Brisban’s Allkem has forecast strong prices for lithium over the June quarter, but a drop in production for the year because of Western Australia’s border closures and tight job market.

Jun 06, 2022, updated Jun 06, 2022
Allkem's Olaroz lithium project in Argentina

Allkem's Olaroz lithium project in Argentina

Allkem’s share price slumped 16 per cent last week over concerns raised by Goldman Sachs about global lithium prices. There was also news out of Argentina about the setting of an export reference prices.

Goldman Sachs last week said that “the battery metals bull market is over for now” because of oversupply. It forecast current lithium prices of just under $US54,000 a tonne ($A74,880) would fall to $US16,000/t in 2023.

But Allkem said the market was still strong.

“The June quarter full-year 2022 average price received for lithium carbonate is expected to be approximately 14 per cent above prior guidance at $US40,000 a tonne ($A55,000) free-on-board on sales of approximately 3500 tonnes, effectively about $US140 million ($A194 million) in revenue.

“Customers continue to value security of supply which is reflected in a fully committed order book for the remainder of the calendar year.”

Allkem’s estimated spodumene production for the year had been downgraded by between 2 per cent and 4 per cent due to production delays from the highly competitive West Australian labour market and Covid-related requirements due to the delayed re-opening of the West Australian border”.

The company said Argentina’s Customs Agency recently set a reference price for lithium carbonate of $US53,000 a tonne which the company said was used by regulators to review export sales of lithium chemicals to prevent under-invoicing and improve pricing transparency.

“This price is not used for calculation of taxes, royalties or duties and Allkem does not expect it will have any material impact on product exports, realised prices or profitability,” it said.

 

 

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