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Good news – Qld jobs boom rolls on; bad news – interest rate hike looms

Queensland’s unemployment has dropped to a 14-year low at 4 per cent, but more economists are saying the potential for an election rate hike was increasing.

Apr 14, 2022, updated Apr 14, 2022
Treasurer Cameron Dick  (AAP Image/Darren England)

Treasurer Cameron Dick (AAP Image/Darren England)

While economists were disappointed the national rate didn’t budge from last month, Queensland employers looked to have moved workers from part time to full time in March. About 20,000 fulltime jobs were created while part-time numbers went backwards.

Treasurer Cameron Dick said that in the past two years, Queensland had created more jobs than any other Australian state or territory and more jobs that New South Wales and Victoria combined.

The number of unemployed in Queensland was 112,000, the lowest since 2009.

Nationally, about 18,000 jobs were created in March, about half the expected total, but the pause in job growth may alter the thinking around interest rate increases.

However, the Australian Bureau of Statistics rounds its published figures and economists pointed out that when rounding was excluded the real unemployment rate was 3.954238 per cent, which was lower than the 3.984562 per cent in February 2008.

“So technically the lowest in the history of the modern series,” IFM economist Alex Joiner said.

AMP economist Shane Oliver said Australia was now at full employment.

“And this points to much stronger wages ahead,” he said.

However, it also meant higher inflation which was consistent with imminent interest rate hikes.

“With March quarter inflation likely to be far stronger than RBA expectations there is a rising chance it will hike in May or hike by 0.4 per cent in June,” he said.

ANZ said the combination of low unemployment and underemployment pointed to a marked pick-up in wages growth over this year and next.

“Wages growth tends to be persistent. We think this will be a key factor in eventually driving the RBA’s cash rate target above 3 per cent, though we don’t see this happening nearly as quickly as the market is pricing,” the bank said.

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