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Gold price tipped to hit $2000 if things get bad, $3000 if they get worse

Business

Analysts are now penciling in a gold price above $US3000 ($A4212) an ounce as the precious metal this week edged closer to a record $US2000.

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RBC Capital Markets said gold has settled at its highest levels ever and investors’ attitudes toward the metal had changed amid the public health crisis, economic turbulence, and extremely easy monetary policy actions.

“Love it or hate it, gold has been a freight train in many respects. It has been on a winning streak not seen in years, having set records in all of the gold-relevant currencies. Exchange-traded product flows, prices, and investor interest are all at all-time highs, in our view,” RBC commodity strategist Christopher Louney said.

Gold was considered a safe haven in uncertain times and uncertainty was currently high amid the multiple crises and political as well as geopolitical tensions are proliferating. This meant gold was perceived once again as a safe haven. The price had risen 17 per cent in the first six months of 2020 and an additional 10 per cent in July.

“On top of that, with gold prices rocketing to all-time highs, gold’s outright price gains have made it a star asset in 2020, arguably appearing more popular than ever.

“On the back of this, we have moved our previous middle/base case to our low scenario, moved our previous high scenario to the middle/base, and launched a new high scenario where gold crosses the $3000 an ounce level assuming the current situation deteriorates materially.

“Right now, the macro environment still is extremely gold-positive. Gold is largely tracking real rates, to which its rolling negative correlation has stuck in strongly negative territory for some time now.

“Of course, the dollar has helped given recent weakness. Its recent slump has coincided with the prospect of mounting deficits in the US and elsewhere, ongoing fiscal and monetary stimulus across the world, and ultra-low rates for as long as necessary in most places.

“In this environment, gold has shone brightly among investors looking for a ‘perceived safe haven’ and ‘store of value’ outside of fiat currencies.

“With gains having exceeded our earlier expectations, our new middle/base case, to which we have a slight bias, sees gold passing the $2000 an ounce level in the coming quarters, before losing steam thereafter in 2021.”

The World Gold Council said the commodity had been on a generally positive trend for the past few years.

“However, the onset of the global COVID-19 pandemic has made gold’s relevance as a hedge even more apparent and accelerated its price performance.”

The gold price more than doubled from about $US900 an ounce in early 2008 to its high more than three years later in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. In contrast, it has increased by just under 30 per cent since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

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