Why the next State election could be decided by people voting for the first time
Queensland politics has always been a little difficult to predict, but a melting pot of newly arrived, returning or newly eligible voters will have a big impact on the next State poll next year, writes Greg Hallam
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd was able to mobilise much of the youth vote - either campaign on his behalf or at least to vote for him, when he overthrew John Howard in 2007. (AAP Image/Lukas Coch)
According to the Electoral Commission of Queensland (ECQ), come the next state election on 26 October, 2024 there will be hundreds of thousands of voters casting their ballot for the first time. What will it mean to the outcome of the election.
The breakdown of figures supplied by the ECQ show as at 17 August 2023 ,248,000 new to the roll enrolments, made up of young people and new citizens. Additionally,there are 161,000 new, formerly interstate voters and a further 44,800 re- enrolments.
Of course, it’s not one way traffic, with 113,700 voters moving interstate 75,700 deaths , and 52,900 removed by objection from the voters roll .That’s a lot of flux, with another 14 months of plusses and minuses to occur before polling date .
There is a relatively even distribution of the voter roll changes up and down the Queensland coastline, with the high growth areas in SEQ and provincial Queensland accounting for the majority of changes. As you would expect, the electoral roll changes mirror the recently updated state and region population figures.
One of the sagest political pundits in Queensland said the increase over the 2020 elector numbers looked fairly normal, noting a big post-Covid one-off influx of interstate migrants. It was their belief that those voters followed their previous interstate voting patterns, but tended to become more conservative once they crossed the Queensland border.
No doubt all the political parties will be wanting to engage with the newbies, especially given their sheer numbers. I’m told the state secretaries/executive directors of the major parties sweat on the monthly updated roll data that is published in the Queensland Government Gazette.
It’s not a cheap exercise to chase the new voters, and accordingly it disadvantages the minor parties who don’t have the war chests of the majors.
For the first time voters, there isn’t the post cognitive dissonance challenge of changing their vote . It’s a straightforward transaction casting their vote the first time – no pyschological baggage.
That said, the interstate and overseas first-time voters came to Queensland for a reason. Will that decision to move to the Sunshine State colour their vote, or will they vote in tune with long timers.
Many scholarly works have been written on the psychology of voting, but new voters are a different story.
Gherghina and Russu posited in the Social Science Quarterly in 2021 that the majority of polling research was conducted on total voting trends with scant emphasis on first time voters.
They found the 18 year old first timers fell in to two camps: Those not overly engaged in the political process and mainly influenced by family and older friends; and those who were politically engaged and swayed by campaigns and candidates .
Whichever of the parties that best masters the challenge of best engaging and relating to the first timers will have a decent head start on winning the next state election.
As I’ve previously opined, population growth and growth pressures will be one of the key themes at next year’s poll.
That encapsulates both the community churn and angst about where Queensland is headed. It certainly suits the ALP to be looking forward rather than the quicksand of current times.How the public debate is fashioned will be crucial.
Expect a lot of discourse and campaigning on a future Queensland, with the horizon as far out as the 2032 Olympics.
